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Initial B

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Posts posted by Initial B

  1. 17 hours ago, Ansem said:

    OMG, can we stop with the "Canadian self defeating atttitude"?

    No CPL won't be an 8 team league after a split in half. How many times can CPL say 16 teams THEN we start D2?

    Can someone find me 1 article or official quote talking about splitting the league in half? yeah I didn't think so

    Sorry but it would be unbelievably stupid to build up to 16 and then split it in half after all those years. That's a very underwhelming move that would crush the league's momentum. 

    Most importantly, no investors in their right minds would invest in such a risky venture. Pro/Rel is a tough sell as it is and now you're telling them that half of them will be cut...

    I assumed when the CPL talks of instituting pro-rel at 16 teams, they would split those 16 teams. So are you saying they would institute pro-rel with the teams following? Who would those handful of new teams play against for the first few years? Div 2 supporters would probably get bored facing off against the same teams 6-7 times per season. 

    If an even split is so unappealing to you, then how would you split so there are enough teams in Div 2? You can't have a 10-team Div 1 and a 6-team Div 2. The only other option I can see would be to focus on building up Div 3 to a CHL-style structure with L1O, PLSQ, and western counterpart, then groom some of those teams to be ready for the jump to a regional Div 2. After some suitable preparation time,  relegate some of the clubs from Div 1 and promote the groomed Div 3 teams to make an initial Div 2. 

  2. ted, your comment about 16 teams got me to thinking about talent dilution. I agree that 16 teams would probably be ideal, but I'm not sure how much talent Canada has at this point not just in players, but in coaches. I would rather have a smaller number of clubs playing the best against best than games where you may end up with a bunch of blowouts when top and bottom ranked teams meet. As quality increases, *then* increase the number of teams in the first division. Maybe we could someday end up like Sweden's Allsvenskan, with a season that lasts between the April and November International breaks, 16 teams, 30 games, and ranked 14th in the world.

  3. I guess the implementation of pro-rel depends on how long the CPL keeps a salary cap in place. If the salary cap is permanent, then there should be no reason why any team would be better than any other team in terms of quality, so being top or bottom of the league could be due to good/back luck or injuries. Not exactly fair to relegate in a parity league and the loss of media revenue/exposure could be devastating.

    Then again, not having a Division 2 might make it harder for new clubs to enter the league and won't provide an additional pathway for young players to take the next step along the development ladder. However, maybe it's not needed since CPL is scouting L1O for the best talent to promote to their clubs. I remember Anthony Totera mentioning in his Ottawa talk that a lot of players from other provinces are coming to play in L1O for the quality and exposure. And it's not just players, but where are we going to get quality coaches for these teams?

    Hmmm... may the pro-rel they're talking about isn't for clubs joining new divisions, but for players purchased/released by clubs instead. Clubs are just a means to an end for player development for the national team, so clubs should be given priority based on geographic location and population density with localized pairs of clubs to develop rivalries. If forced to limit the CPL to 16 clubs, I would choose Pacific-Mainland BC, Cavalry-FCE, Saskatchewan-Valour, London-Kitchener, Forge-York 9, Ottawa-Laval-Quebec City, Moncton-Halifax-St John's. 

  4. On 4/8/2019 at 9:36 PM, mtlsab said:

    I think the D1 should be 8-10 maximum so the level will be really good and we could compete with other CONCACAF leagues pretty soon

    2019:7 teams

    2020: 10 teams

    2021: 10 (teams)

    2022: 10 teams + creation of D2

    The first edition of D2 should include the farm team of D1(10 teams), the farm teams of MLS clubs (3 teams), the PDL clubs (5 teams) and some other new markets (6 teams)

    An 8-team Div 1 would allow a 28-game double home-and-away balanced schedule. 10 teams would be too large for that, so it would have to be 3 games against every other club.  But that could limit the number of teams to relegate - 2 teams relegated from an 8-team div is a 25% relegation rate when most national leagues have between a 15-20% relegation rate so there could be some heavy strains on clubs to perform or go down, which might have financial repercussions on the owners. At least there would be no middle table malaise: A club would either be fighting for a CL spot or fighting relegation. There would be no middle ground. Might be good for development or might hinder it if coaches feel pressured to play their best players only. 

    As for your planned structure, I think there is too much of a gap if you go straight from regional leagues to a national league. A second division should be the bridge that allows clubs to adjust to the demands from regional to national travel. It should require about half the amount of national travelling as Div 1 and a fair amount of the Regional Travelling as Div 3. I wouldn't make it too big either, just enough that you could start instituting pro rel between Div 3 and Div 2 clubs as well.  If you stayed with a 8-team Div 1 with a 28 game season, then to keep a 28 game season in Div 2, you could have 3 conferences of 4 teams each - play home-and-away against every other conference and play double home-and-away matches against in-conference clubs. At the Div 3 level, you will have the professional equivalent of L1O, PLSQ, and whatever western league they manage to cobble together together. It's at *this* level that I'd put any club reserve teams.

    So for structure it would be... Div 1: 8-club single table; Div 2: 12-clubs in 3 conferences; Div 3: Three regional leagues with no interleague play, preferably 8 teams each. Does that sound doable?

  5. On 4/6/2019 at 8:21 AM, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

    Judging by what you see on Ticketmaster on single ticket seat availability, things are going well in Halifax, Hamilton and Edmonton, but Winnipeg, Calgary, Victoria and York 9 are still question marks that become increasingly large in that order, so for anybody looking at it rationally rather than with unconditional blind faith, it's still too early to draw firm conclusions on whether CanPL is likely to hang in there on the medium to long term. Season ticket renewal rates will be pivotal even in the cities that have done well in that context for year one.

    As things stand at the moment there are both positive and negative early signs available depending on what you choose to focus on. When the most likely eighth franchise appears to be Saskatoon, it's also difficult and also arguably unfair to make comparisons with the USL Championship. The market sizes involved if they expand out to 16 or so by 2026 are going be more like the non-MLS B team cities in USL 1, because of the much smaller total national population involved in Canada relative to the United States.

    To me, this makes an argument for Pro-Rel. The sooner the CPL can split off an 8-team First Division (CPL Elite?)with teams who have the financial means for multiple cross-country road trips, the better. I think it's imperative that the First Division stabilize as quickly as possible. Then the Second Division (CPL Championship?) would become the more fluid entry level with less travelling and easier for new clubs to jump into, expanding and contracting as the fortunes of clubs turn.

  6. On 4/2/2019 at 11:45 AM, Red and White said:

    It's purely business to OSEG. If CPL looks solid in its inaugural year, you'll see them soften up and gain interest. It's in CPL's best interest to eventually bring them in, whether the relationship is friendly or just pure business. OSEG have the best stadium and location in the city - setting up competition to this less ideal to just bringing them on board.

    That's the thing - I'm getting the feeling that the Fury's decision to stay in USL this year was a business decision, but the CPL has taken it personally, which has led to nonconstructive things being said. I just hope we're not going to see Canadian Soccer politics rear its ugly head again. I thought we were over that crap.

  7. On 4/2/2019 at 9:35 AM, BuzzAndSting said:

    I heard about this event, what was the context? Was he just promoting the idea of the CPL or was he just there as an appearance to talk soccer in general? If he's promoting the league I find it odd that they would schedule a talk with one club. Can you elaborate on what he talked about?

    He was talking mostly to the young players and their parents about what they needed to do to get on the radar of CPL clubs and college coaches. He also talked a bit about their scouting network. It seems that the CPL is developing their own scouting network apart from the Provincial and National associations. I'm think this is a great idea because there are so many players that seem to fall through the cracks of the ID camps. St Anthony is the oldest club in the Ottawa area and located in Little Italy, but there are also a couple of local academies like KNSA and Futuro that are affiliated with them. I estimate there were about 50-60 people with seating for about 120, but the weather was absolute crap so that might be the reason for the relatively low attendance.

  8. Wembley hosts concerts and things and protects the turf using a hard raised overlay before laying down items on top the the field. Works for about a week at a time. Shouldn't be a problem.

  9. I was at a meeting on the weekend in Ottawa where Anthony Totera was giving a talk about CPL to a bunch of parents and their kids. When asked about the Fury, he said he couldn't talk about *anything* regarding them because the situation was still too fresh and hot. Maybe in a couple of years he said. My gut feel is that the Fury would be okay with joining the CPL in a year or two, but the CPL may not be. The tension between the two viewpoints feels... weird and odd. I can't explain it.

  10. 18 minutes ago, matty said:

    na there's valid concerns to their opinions and not just troll issues
    -carlton' stadium does look like total shit compared to td place
    -teams that are more suburban (cavs, pfc and york 9) all either reportedly or are rumoured to have weak ticket sales
    -ottawa's transit is usually the worst rated of the major cities in canada
    -limited land

    I don't know where you're getting that from. Nationwide, OCTranspo is considered one of the best systems, but also with the most expensive fares. The cost is usually the biggest complaint, sure we grumble when the snowstorms knock the schedules out of whack, but it's pretty efficient otherwise.

  11. I meant to mention that I was at the Ottawa Fury SSH event on Monday and there was a Q&A period where the past year was brought up and JdG was pretty supportive of the CPL. Talking offline, I had a chance to voice my concerns to some of the staff. What they said was that it all came down to money. They paid an expansion fee to join the NASL, lost that when they joined the USL and paid another expansion fee. They estimate the current valuation of the club at around $7.1 million. From what I understood, it looks like the USL believes there are a number of locations in the US that want a club, but the USL Championship is eventually going to stop expanding and have new clubs join at the USL1 level. The Fury believe that if they did make the Jump to CPL and it failed, they would be not be allowed back to the USL because their spot would be snapped up and with no league to play, they would be forced to fold. This is something that supporters should consider - if CPL fails, there is no option for the remaining viable clubs to join an american league, so I'm praying that it is successful.

    They also mentioned that OSEG had spent $22 million on upgrades on the club up to this point and didn't want to lose the work they put into it. I can confirm, because when I went on a tour of the South Stand construction back in 2013, both the Fury and the RedBlacks had their own separate locker rooms and training areas being built. When I consider the failed trajectories of Canadian professional soccer leagues over the past 3 decades, I understand their reticence.

    They said that if forced, they would obviously have to join the CPL, but they hope to see it successful and join at the point that makes the most business sense to them and pay the franchise fee. Quite a few of the attendee conversations I overheard wanted to see the Fury in CPL sooner than later, because they felt more invested cheering against Canadian cities than American ones.

  12. On 3/25/2019 at 6:03 PM, m-g-williams said:

    The only other option I could see would be to go the York 9 route and pay for significant upgrades to either Carleton or UOttawa's stadium. The locations aren't the greatest though, and it would still come off as rinky-dink compared to what the Fury have at Lansdowne. When you're trying to sell yourself as Tier 1 but play in a facility that's clearly second-rate . . . I just don't see it working for either team. 

    Carleton's stadium would be perfect because it's 200 metres from an O-train station. The transit options for this location are great. It would need permanent concessions and washroom facilities, though.

  13. I'm heading to pick up my Fury tickets tonight. We're allowed to ask questions of the coach and GM. Any ideas on what I should ask them? I was thinking of asking if there was any truth to the rumour that GMs and Coaches also fall under the CPL salary cap. I was also going to ask if they don't get sanctioning next year and the options are join CPL or fold, which will ownership choose?

  14. True, but I think the CPL has made certain statements and they don't want public perception of backtracking for at least the first couple of years. I think we're looking at Apertura/Clausura at least until they split Div 1 and Div 2. The fact that they're starting using the same format the NASL did makes me think the Faths have had some influence on league structure and growth plan using their experiences in that league.

  15. I understand that it's unbalanced, and you can't fight that while the league expands and teams don't fall within certain multiples. But does the general public (who they're trying to convert) care? I think the CPL execs realize that they will not have a 28-game, completely fair schedule until they get First Division to either 8 or 15 teams. Once that  Div 1 stability is reached, they'll start working on doing the same at Div 2, even as it expands.

    In the meantime, they will continue with the Apertura/Clausura format and have playoffs without calling them as such (though I understand not wanting the general public's perception thinking playoffs will be normal for the CPL). It's also why I think the CPL will split into Div 1 and Div 2 as soon as it is viable to do so, which would be at 16 total teams. 

  16. 3 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

    After ten teams, and up to 13 or so, you have a bit of a headache. You are almost certainly forced to think about a regular season and then a championship round, or add playoffs, or go to a very unbalanced schedule. 

    That's the beauty of the Apertura/Clausura, you don't have to have a balanced schedule, just choose the number of games you want to play, divide the season in half and the winner of each half has a chance to win the title. NASL used it even as it added additional teams, so why not CPL while it fleshes out its structure?

  17. I've been doing some thinking about the purpose of the CPL. My son is always trying to play at the highest level in order to play against the best. The more clubs you have a top level, the more diluted the product becomes. If CPL kept Div 1 small (8-10 clubs), then theoretically the best players would gravitate towards those Div 1 clubs, refining the level of play faster and faster. Those that couldn't keep up would get relegated to Div 2 until they could take another run at playing with the best. With 6 Canadians guaranteed to start on each club, an 8-team Div 1 would have 48 players playing at the highest level outside MLS.

    Additionally, my research showed that many of the best nations have leagues where they relegate 20% of the teams from Div 1 every season. If an 8-club Div 1 relegated 2 clubs per season, that would be a 25% changeover. Imagine the stresses to perform on the players in those clubs where if you aren't playing for a title, you're fighting off relegation. There would be no middle ground.

    Those nation's with second divisions, getting promoted almost invariably involve playoffs - usually the first team in a single table is automatically promoted, but there are usually playoffs for the spots below. As CPL adds more teams, having a fluid Div 2 structure would allow those teams to learn the ropes at a lower level while keeping the format stable at the top, so fans, players, and media alike all know the annual dates for all important events and matches.

    Sorry for the rambling post - my stream of consciousness thinking is going off on all sorts of tangents lately regarding the CPL.

  18. 22 minutes ago, Impactsupporter said:

    Yesterday, I showed this to a soccer coach in my hometown on the south Shore of Montreal (name and town withheld by request) and he said that VERY FEW of these cities outside of D1 will have the budgets to travel coast to coast.

    I agree that the D1 should have 14 teams BUT I still favor splitting them up into 2 groups of 7 with pro rel between them (but not the D2 or D3) modelled after the Currie Cup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currie_Cup

    OR you could model the D2 and D3 after this:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B.League

    Just a thought.

    That's exactly why Div 2 Clubs would only play games within their own region in the chart you quoted. The geographic catchments for each of those leagues would be similar to those used by the Canadian Hockey League (OHL = L1O, QMJHL = PLSQ, WHL = yet to be formed League). The only out-of-Region play would occur between the playoff teams to determine promotion to Div 1. There probably should be some mechanism to allow Champion Div 2 clubs the ability to decline promotion if they feel it would place too much of a financial strain on the club. Also, remember that list is a structure for 20 years from now. After 20 years of MLS, there were 20 First Division clubs and 11 Second Division clubs and 28 Third Division clubs. It is also worthwhile to note that the National Div 2 League pretty much died soon after and was replaced by a Regional Div 2 League.

    I think a B.league-type conference system could work for first division, but the CPL has been pretty adamant that they are going to be single table.

  19. 17 hours ago, Ansem said:

    Deals like MediaPro helps where the money trickles down to all level. That's the kind of revenue that a D2 would absolutely need. CSB bundling everything together is key here as everyone can count on recurring revenues. 

    <snip>

    The success of CPL, a World Cup, a good national team could have implemented the "soccer culture" needed for a National D2 to work in smaller market. You need that culture for smaller areas to still drive an average of 5k fans a game on average. We clearly don't have that in 2019 but in 2026-2029? Very possible but it starts with CPL culminating to a 2026 World Cup with a team getting us into the round of 16.

    Until you have the conditions above and then some, heavier corporate/sponsor investments, I don't see D2 happening in my opinion.

    I would agree with this, but it got me thinking: If there is a Salary Cap in place (or some form of the UEFA Financial Fair Play rules), then there would be no need for Pro-Rel because of "any given Sunday" and all that, depending on their fortunes of the year. But if the salary rules are relaxed, Div 1 would be for the elite clubs that can pay and the Div 2 clubs would be for those trying to make it on a lower budget. If the media rights go across all levels, maybe that would mitigate the effects of a drop.

    As for travel, I think Div 2 should be a bridge between the Regional Div 3 level and the National Div 1 level. Teams at Div 2 should probably expect to play every Div 2 team at least once, which would require cross-country travel. However the remainder of their games should probably be played against teams within their geographical group or conference, each similar in area to the D3 League immediately below it in the Pyramid. Promotion would be decided by Playoffs only.

    As for entry fees, I think they should remain static, even as entries get pushed down to Div 2 or even Div 3 as apposed to MLS model raising the cost higher and higher as they add more teams to an increasingly unwieldy structure. 

  20. 17 hours ago, Ansem said:

    I would argue that an area with 300k but little to no corporate presence makes it less desirable, for D1 at least. Looking at the census, despite Barrie ranking higher in population, Moncton makes way more sense due to it's corporate weight (Irving). Same for Niagara-St.Cath having double St.John's population but they have Oil companies like ExxonMobil Canada having it's HQ there.

    I'm not sure about corporate presence, but for Corporate headquarters, Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver have the lion's share and they're mostly hitching their wagon to MLS. A cursory Wiki search shows these CPL cities with Corp HQs:

    1. Calgary (Oil Companies, CPR, Shaw)
    2. Edmonton (Government, Finance, Technology, The Brick, Bioware)
    3. Winnipeg (Government, Transportation, GreatWest Life)
    4. Victoria (Government - probably the weakest corporate presence, maybe Vista Broadcast from Courtnay?))
    5. York Region (Magna, Honda, Mobilicity, Ganz)
    6. Hamilton (Stelco, Dofasco)
    7. Halifax (Bell Aliant, NS Power, Jazz Air, Government)

    A further Wiki search shows these other Canadian cities with multiple or major Corporate HQs that could probably support Div 1 soccer:

    1. Brampton (Loblaws, Hudson's Bay)
    2. Burnaby (Telus, Balard Power, EA Canada)
    3. Kelowna (FortisBC, Sun Rype, Koingo Software)
    4. Kitchener-Waterloo (Colt Weapons, Dare Foods, Blackberry, technology) 
    5. Laval (Circle K, Valeant Pharma etc)
    6. London (Financial, London Life, Goodlife Fitness)
    7. Mississauga (Cotts, IMAX, Winners, Second Cup)
    8. Oakville (Ford, Tim Hortons, Financial)
    9. Ottawa (Software, Corel, Shopify, Giant Tiger, GOVERNMENT)
    10. Quebec City (Government, Financial, )
    11. Regina (Government, SaskTel, SaskPower, TransGas)
    12. Saskatoon (Potash Corp, Mining, Biotech)
    13. St. John's (Fortis, Bowring)
    14. Saint John (Irving Oil, Moosehead, JDI)
    15. Windsor (Chrysler)

    A further Wiki search shows these other Canadian cities with Corp HQs that could probably front lower tier soccer::

    1. Barrie (The Source)
    2. Belleville (Black Diamond Cheese)
    3. Brantford (New York Fries)
    4. Cambridge (Lystek)
    5. Charlottetown (PEI Insurance)
    6. Delta (Choices Market)
    7. Fredericton (Government, McCain Foods?)
    8. Fort McMurray (Syncrude)
    9. Guelph (Sleeman's)
    10. Langley (Save-on-Foods, Pharmasave)
    11. Longueuil (Pratt & Whitney)
    12. Medicine Hat (Kodiak Coil)
    13. Oshawa (GM)
    14. Prince Albert (Transwest Air)
    15. Prince George (Forestry)
    16. Sault-Ste-Marie (OLG)
    17. Surrey (Frozen Mountain)
    18. Vernon (Kal Tire, Tolko)

    Unfortunately no Moncton, but that's 40 communities with a significant Corporate presence. Some companies have a national footprint and could sponsor aspects of the league, not just teams. Jersey sponsorship is going to be interesting if this league takes off.

  21. 1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

    Really, why do people come up with these insulting little lists based on absolutely NOTHING except wiki demographic searches. What do you get from being demeaning to two founding teams and sticking in two teams, in top flight, that no one has even talked about?

    Sigh. Fine. Here's a closer to final state that I could see the league becoming Circa 2040. This should include just about every possible location for a club.

    image.thumb.png.c675e78427afcf7dfda1a4b0ac91e15c.png

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