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CPL new teams speculation

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58 minutes ago, -Hammer- said:

If I'm the CanPL, I tell them for now, it is way too soon. When the league has enough stability where two rogue owners can't potentially spell doom for the league, it's a different conversation, but for now I would say it should be a hard no. Now, ten years down the road, with franchises across the country, and potential to break into the big markets, it's a much different conversation. Then that conversation becomes "Look, we'll let you in, but this league isn't a farm for MLS or TFC. Draconian and limited loaning and transfer options to your MLS club if you want in." 

In 10 years, the league should be thinking about CPL2 (2029). At that moment, I welcome them with open arms in CPL II.

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5 hours ago, Cheeta said:

1st part, disagree somewhat.  A lot of things worked against the original CSL, some of it quite outside their control, others entirely within but that's a million word topic all on its own but on the whole I believe, know, the market was there...

The subtext to this is whether they are in a strong enough position to spurn interest from MLS I/Os. It was a huge struggle for them to put 7 franchises together. If they had 10 right now with three MLS affiliates on board they would be in much better shape to weather the coming storm once aspiration is replaced with reality and some franchises no doubt will start to do well in an 86ers sort of way, while others start to consistently struggle because somebody inevitably has to finish bottom of the standings and some of the cities are not as strong as some of the others in terms of having a local soccer scene to draw players from that are ready to step in and contribute.

The original CSL made a similar decision to exclude what would probably have been stable franchises by being determined to exclude ethnic team names. If the pre-existing Toronto Italia (previous pro level history in the ECPSL) and Toronto Croatia (previous pro level history in the NASL and CPSL) NSL franchises had been on board as they wanted to be rather than the North York Rockets it's far from impossible that the CSL could have found a way to make it through the recession of the early 90s by having a solid core of franchises in the Quebec-Windsor corridor plus Winnipeg and Vancouver and lived to fight another day when soccer in North America started to grow stronger again after the 1994 World Cup. Not saying history has to repeat itself but it definitely would be good to see more of a spirit of inclusive compromise this time around, because it's absence and the squabbling over Ottawa definitely provides a feeling of deja vu.

As more of an aside than anything else, what people seem to forget about the CSL era is that it followed on the footsteps of the original NASL era when large crowds with plenty of Joe Average types (for example, Tulsa wasn't exactly renowned as a soccer hotbed before the Roughnecks arrived) did show up to watch what was from Pele's arrival onwards a very high quality league. Attempts in its aftermath in both the US and Canada to try to draw fans with a significantly lower quality entertainment product generally failed dismally, because Joe Average does notice the difference. The CSL also launched in an era when the post-WWII immigration wave in a Canadian context had little or no access to soccer in broadcasting terms and were still showing up in large enough numbers to sustain what were effectively semi-pro clubs not just in an NSL context in Toronto but in a lot of other cities as well where amateur status was officially retained as the provincial cups and national championship were viewed as the big prize. For a variety of reasons the latent fanbase for the sport that was definitely out there at the time didn't show up for the CSL. Nothing should ever be taken for granted in that regard until loyalties to teams become deeply ingrained after multiple generations.

Edited by BringBackTheBlizzard

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For BBTB’s argument to hold weight, he has to provide some evidence both the Caps and Impact were willing to put affiliates into the CPL like TFC was but I don’t recall even rumours of that being considered. Also, for that to be comparable to the original CSL with regards to not letting in Croatia and Italia, it would mean MLS having current affiliates in the USL that are drawing well, which also isn’t the case. TFC 2 don’t draw well and both WC 2 and Impact 2 have been discontinued. How much better would they have lasted in the CPL? They were already branded as reserve teams. Obviously, the only thing bringing those types of operations into the fold would do is drag the image of the CPL down. I doubt the current clubs in the mix would be doing as well with regards to membership numbers. I don’t get why he keeps harping on about it. It’s not happening, the league isn’t going in the direction he wanted it to. He was wrong about all his speculation to the build up of this whole thing.

Get the fuck over it.

Edited by Macksam

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2 hours ago, Gopherbashi said:

Let MLSE show that they can run a well-attended, independent affiliate in USL1 first, and then we can talk about letting MLSE run a well-attended, independent affiliate in CPL.

I get the reasoning, but that tactic would have the spin-off effect of strengthening Fury's case for staying in USL.  Not that I am really in favour of forcing them into CPL (I am starting to think they can piss away in USL forever if that is what they want) but it would strengthen the idea that Canadian clubs can freely choose between the two leagues. 

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5 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

I get the reasoning, but that tactic would have the spin-off effect of strengthening Fury's case for staying in USL.  Not that I am really in favour of forcing them into CPL (I am starting to think they can piss away in USL forever if that is what they want) but it would strengthen the idea that Canadian clubs can freely choose between the two leagues. 

Especially if a CPL club is competitive against Ottawa in the Third Q round of the Canadian Championship, I suspect Ottawa will be forced in by CONCACAF. They will see no reason for a team that is of equal quality to play in another country's league.

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I think MLSE is seeing CPL's momentum and is, for the first time, genuinely worried about what it is going to do to TFC's revenue.  Yes, TFC will still be the biggest game in town.  But there are a shitload of kids outside the GTA who currently buy TFC merch.  I see it at the local soccer games - kids with TFC hats and balls. Or hoodies.  Or whatever.  These are kids who are exposed to MLS as the Canadian footy context by default.  It may be the same with Impact in other areas (maybe NB) and VWC (in the Western provinces). 

But in a couple of months, millions of these kids outside the 3 major markets will have a local - or more local - team to root for.  The soccer mom from Halifax will probably buy her kid the Wanderers short instead of the TFC shirt as part of his birthday present.  That will happen to some degree in every CPL market and nearby areas.  It won't cripple TFC by any means - they will still be a juggernaut.  But I guarantee they have guys doing projections and feeling a bit nervous about their previously secure revenue streams.

In the context of their possible participation in CPL, this has two opposite implications:

- they will want a piece of that pie (good)

- they will have a baked-in interest about the league not growing to rival them in terms of support (the bad)

I still think  a team could work and be structured in such a way that it accomplishes the  first goal (and thereby helps the league grow) without giving room to influence the second.  As others have pointed out, the league isn't in a position where it has to take whatever shitty offer MLSE might make - they can play hardball and make sure that any arrangement works first and foremost for the league's benefit. 

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I get the feeling that CPL is going to go pro-rel as soon as they hit 16 teams. At that point, any new teams would enter at Div 2 (which would keep franchise fees low) and they could fill out the lower division to the point where they could add some teams to Div 1 and eventually cap Div 2 at a certain number of teams, then institute pro-rel between Div 2 and the regional Div 3 leagues like L1O and LPSQ.

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Think what is implied by the 16 figure on pro-rel is more that it's the minimum number for having two sensible looking divisions of 8 each and that they might go from 14 to 8-8 at that point in numbers terms. Despite all the optimistic rhetoric that's probably viewed as being way off in the future, because of the issue of finding suitable stadiums.

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On 2/25/2019 at 2:38 AM, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

The original CSL made a similar decision to exclude what would probably have been stable franchises by being determined to exclude ethnic team names. If the pre-existing Toronto Italia (previous pro level history in the ECPSL) and Toronto Croatia (previous pro level history in the NASL and CPSL) NSL franchises had been on board as they wanted to be rather than the North York Rockets it's far from impossible that the CSL could have found a way to make it through the recession of the early 90s by having a solid core of franchises in the Quebec-Windsor corridor plus Winnipeg and Vancouver and lived to fight another day when soccer in North America started to grow stronger again after the 1994 World Cup. Not saying history has to repeat itself but it definitely would be good to see more of a spirit of inclusive compromise this time around, because it's absence and the squabbling over Ottawa definitely provides a feeling of deja vu.

Australia banned ethnic names from their teams,  but what if you could merge all the various ethnic teams in the unsanctioned CSL (and definitely abolish the CSL once and for all) and come up with an "Inter-Toronto" team?  Just something to think about.

3 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Think what is implied by the 16 figure on pro-rel is more that it's the minimum number for having two sensible looking divisions of 8 each and that they might go from 14 to 8-8 at that point in numbers terms. Despite all the optimistic rhetoric that's probably viewed as being way off in the future, because of the issue of finding suitable stadiums.

Again using Australia, you might find this article or opinion piece interesting:

https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/05/17/leagues-promotion-relegation-solution-needs-unique-australia/

The issue here in Canada is not just about suitable stadiums, but travel costs especially for teams in medium and small sized towns.

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Never mind trying to find mid-sized markets, I think the two biggest issues with the growth of the CPL is finding suitable stadiums and cost of travel.  Generally any park/stadium that is out there which could be expanded is owned by a municipality/university and even then, it'll be lucky to hold 1,000 people and can't be expanded without significant investment by the taxpayer or a CPL owner.  And then there's travel costs: it's often much cheaper to fly to Florida from Ontario/Quebec than from Ontario/Quebec to Saskatchewan. 

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32 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

Never mind trying to find mid-sized markets, I think the two biggest issues with the growth of the CPL is finding suitable stadiums and cost of travel.  Generally any park/stadium that is out there which could be expanded is owned by a municipality/university and even then, it'll be lucky to hold 1,000 people and can't be expanded without significant investment by the taxpayer or a CPL owner.  And then there's travel costs: it's often much cheaper to fly to Florida from Ontario/Quebec than from Ontario/Quebec to Saskatchewan. 

Toronto to Miami is also an hour and a half shorter flight. I think it depends on the city. I find flights from Toronto to Edmonton and Vancouver cheaper than what I pay to fly to Regina.

Will be looking at approximately 125k/yr with 22 players and staff flying at $400 on average per ticket without any airline deal in place. Not make or break for me when you consider a club can generate almost all of that with a sold out 6k capacity at $17 a ticket on average 

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1 hour ago, JamboAl said:

Never mind trying to find mid-sized markets, I think the two biggest issues with the growth of the CPL is finding suitable stadiums and cost of travel.  Generally any park/stadium that is out there which could be expanded is owned by a municipality/university and even then, it'll be lucky to hold 1,000 people and can't be expanded without significant investment by the taxpayer or a CPL owner.  And then there's travel costs: it's often much cheaper to fly to Florida from Ontario/Quebec than from Ontario/Quebec to Saskatchewan. 

 

While we don't have an airline yet as a sponsor, we do have significant sponsorship and some of that may be tagged for travel expenses.

After some of the recent corporate sponsorship announcements, not sure travel will be the historic stumbling block it once was, when teams were solely reliant on ticket revenue for survival.

 

 

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2 hours ago, JamboAl said:

Never mind trying to find mid-sized markets, I think the two biggest issues with the growth of the CPL is finding suitable stadiums and cost of travel.  Generally any park/stadium that is out there which could be expanded is owned by a municipality/university and even then, it'll be lucky to hold 1,000 people and can't be expanded without significant investment by the taxpayer or a CPL owner.  And then there's travel costs: it's often much cheaper to fly to Florida from Ontario/Quebec than from Ontario/Quebec to Saskatchewan. 

You aren't wrong.  I'm sure that the league and potential owners are aware of this and work travel costs look at it from every angle before buying into the market.  

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2 hours ago, Stouffvillain said:

You aren't wrong.  I'm sure that the league and potential owners are aware of this and work travel costs look at it from every angle before buying into the market.  

I’m sure they are as a sustainable business model will need to address this properly.  Pacific FC and HFX Wanderers has to have thought this through before they committed to the league.

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6 hours ago, JamboAl said:

And then there's travel costs: it's often much cheaper to fly to Florida from Ontario/Quebec than from Ontario/Quebec to Saskatchewan. 

1

This pisses me off about Airlines in Canada. 

How the hell am I suppose to experience the rest of Canada when its substantiall cheaper to fly down south to warmer pastures. 

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5 minutes ago, Jahinho Guerro said:

This pisses me off about Airlines in Canada. 

How the hell am I suppose to experience the rest of Canada when its substantiall cheaper to fly down south to warmer pastures. 

100%. A recently booked trip from Toronto to Sault is more expensive than a round trip from Toronto to Rome.

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20 hours ago, Winnipeg Fury said:

While we don't have an airline yet as a sponsor, we do have significant sponsorship and some of that may be tagged for travel expenses.

After some of the recent corporate sponsorship announcements, not sure travel will be the historic stumbling block it once was, when teams were solely reliant on ticket revenue for survival.

So what you're saying is the teams are going to travel from city to city in VW Westfalias? 😛 Paul Beirne's dream come true!

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22 hours ago, Winnipeg Fury said:

 

While we don't have an airline yet as a sponsor, we do have significant sponsorship and some of that may be tagged for travel expenses.

After some of the recent corporate sponsorship announcements, not sure travel will be the historic stumbling block it once was, when teams were solely reliant on ticket revenue for survival.

I think we do have an airline set up.

The first reason is this: the entire league is going to fly together to Santa Domingo for a shared preseason stage in April. That makes it sound like they have some sort of travel deal in place. Of course it might be a one-off. But I am not sure they'd do that.

Next, they had to look at flights, and even prebook, before they put out the schedule. I mean, they absolutely had to look at certain routes on certain dates, for 26-28 people a shot. They could not risk setting out the schedule without that (especially tougher flights like Victoria, especially, or Halifax). 

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Has to be something in place.  Hard to imagine it otherwise at this point.  

Is it with a single carrier or multiple, how rich a deal/sponsorship who knows but I expect we'll find out over the next month or two.

Really getting real now.  

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20 hours ago, Stryker911 said:

100%. A recently booked trip from Toronto to Sault is more expensive than a round trip from Toronto to Rome.

Really that’s insane !

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