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CPL new teams speculation

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1 hour ago, ironcub14 said:

Really happy to hear PB talk about Quebec publicly, thanks a ton for the SPN summaries above.

I was debating the Ottawa issue privately with @Ansem this morning. I think we came to the agreement that, it's up to Ottawa fans and supporters in BBSC and SMR to continue to extol the virtues of joining CPL to the Fury and OSEG, since they are far more suitable to capitalize on the CPL momentum than a new investor or Melnyk new to soccer, with the added risk that the two teams may kill each other off.

I mentioned this to Duane as well, in that tweet thread earlier, that OSEG must be debating internally and crunching their projections to see if any increase in revenues/attendance/TV exposure from switching from USL to CPL will be enough to match the increase in operating costs due to the player salaries that CPL has pegged and presented to OSEG.

I don't think anybody can conclusively answer that question, with so many unknowns at play, though I'm sure the number crunchers at OSEG are aiming to. What I do think plays heavily into all this in Ottawa is that the Fury and OSEG have spent 3 years in NASL and playing against Edmonton and co, and their fantastic marketing efforts and yet the financial losses are well-documented by now. With that experience in mind, you can understand why OSEG would be hesitant at what kind of a boost CPL could give to the Fury financially; they have the battle scars that the potential CPL owners have yet to experience in soccer.

The fans can still do their part to help convince OSEG that CPL will be worth the added costs. Keep the pressure up, keep talking about it, keep letting more people know.

I think this is bang on.  Both the Fury and FCEd are businesses at the end of the day, and if their consumers signal strongly that they want change, a wise business owner will listen.  I know Socceronly resists that kind of commodification language, but in some contexts I think it makes sense - and the idea of fan power to influence change in a club is one of those examples.

All of us desparately wanting the Ottawa and Edmonton owners to hop on the CPL train won't do it.  But supporter pressure - to be part of the grand project of advancing Canadian footy - just might be enough.  

I have said said elsewhere that CPL can't be self-excluded from these markets for an extended period - but movement of existing clubs into CPL would be the preferred option by far.  And is supporter pressure can help make that happen, it could be hugely influential if any V's involved in supporting those clubs made a concerted effort to convince the owners. 

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3 hours ago, Ansem said:

There's a running track there... So I don't think it's a good venue for soccer, however, there's lots of land on the university grounds. I'm sure they'd welcome private funds upgrading their facility in returns of being co-owners/tenants

16509597361_b569f66efa.jpg

 

 

Yes, it does, but it ticks off every other box quite nicely. At least there are no jumping pits between the field and the stands and most of the seating is on the sides. Nobody will be miles from the pitch. 

If it comes down to playing at PEPS or not having a Quebec team I know what my choice would be. 

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2 hours ago, Jahinho Guerro said:

I truly believe and feel that those teams will join the CPL if not by the start of the league but in the near future. As at some point it will make financial sense for them. 

Now what I think and maybe I'm getting a little over zealous....but let's say the CPL has a strong 5-7 years, the same conversation that you are stating can happen with the Canadian MLS teams. 

Is it possible that we could see Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver sell their expansion spots at lets say 100M (for profit) to the expansion cities that don't get into the MLS and join the CPL at a financial gain?

Like i said, maybe I am being a little over zealous but for me the CPL's success won't only affect the current  Edmonton FC, and the Fury....but should turn the necks of the MLS clubs.

Its great to have this sort of enthusiasm but realistically the thought of the big 3 dropping MLS to join CPL in such a short time frame is a little excessive...especially for Toronto FC. They're a big club by MLS standards, to drop that to join CPL after a mere 5-7 years would be a very poor move from a business decision perspective.

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21 minutes ago, lazlo_80 said:

Its great to have this sort of enthusiasm but realistically the thought of the big 3 dropping MLS to join CPL in such a short time frame is a little excessive...especially for Toronto FC. They're a big club by MLS standards, to drop that to join CPL after a mere 5-7 years would be a very poor move from a business decision perspective.

Im not trying to be a jerk but there as is much chance of this happening as the Raiders deciding to ditch Las Vegas and relocate their NFL franchise to Alaska. MLS has major TV exposure in the USA and Canada. They operate in almost all the major American Markets.

The reality is Canada is a small country and just doesn't have the population/economy to par with MLS nor did I ever hear anyone every claim they wanted to be. Toronto FC is a big club charging big ticket prices and big concession prices. From eveything I have heard CPL aims to be an affordable family experience with a modest salary cap with the aim of providing quality soccer in several markets and developing Canadian talent. I dont see how the big 3 MLS clubs fit into this unless fans are no longer willing to support the big MLS prices in those markets.

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2 hours ago, grasshopper1917 said:

...

The reality is Canada is a small country and just doesn't have the population/economy to par with MLS nor did I ever hear anyone every claim they wanted to be. Toronto FC is a big club charging big ticket prices and big concession prices. From eveything I have heard CPL aims to be an affordable family experience with a modest salary cap

...

Cheeta translator;

CanPL 1st priority is to sell tickets to fans & supporters, not corporations. 

I like it.  "Slumming it" is a tried and tested marketing tradition in Winnipeg.

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5 hours ago, grasshopper1917 said:

Im not trying to be a jerk but there as is much chance of this happening as the Raiders deciding to ditch Las Vegas and relocate their NFL franchise to Alaska. MLS has major TV exposure in the USA and Canada. They operate in almost all the major American Markets.

The reality is Canada is a small country and just doesn't have the population/economy to par with MLS nor did I ever hear anyone every claim they wanted to be. Toronto FC is a big club charging big ticket prices and big concession prices. From eveything I have heard CPL aims to be an affordable family experience with a modest salary cap with the aim of providing quality soccer in several markets and developing Canadian talent. I dont see how the big 3 MLS clubs fit into this unless fans are no longer willing to support the big MLS prices in those markets.

I agree that there is no chance those three MLS franchises (not clubs) will jump from MLS to CPL. They can't because they are MLS franchises. A far more likely scenario is that Canadian football fans will embrace and support the new CPL, and new CPL clubs will start up in those three cities to compete with the MLS franchises. And Canadian football fans will quickly realize where the real football is at in Canada and abandon the franchises to support a real team. At which point the three franchises will fuck off south where they belong.

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19 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

I agree that there is no chance those three MLS franchises (not clubs) will jump from MLS to CPL. They can't because they are MLS franchises. A far more likely scenario is that Canadian football fans will embrace and support the new CPL, and new CPL clubs will start up in those three cities to compete with the MLS franchises. And Canadian football fans will quickly realize where the real football is at in Canada and abandon the franchises to support a real team. At which point the three franchises will fuck off south where they belong.

Best case scenario is fans making themselves being heard loud and clear.

We support a Canadian League, by Canadians for Canadians.

Only if CPL can meet CFL numbers in term of TV contract, over half the CFL attendance, great viewership that it becomes a remote conversation.

Until Then, not happening... Oh fans can make this happen by fully embracing our original 6, than the expansion teams, then being full in and go see them or watch them. 

Let's do our par first. I'll gladly contribute for a Voyageurs executive suite to support a CPL Toronto team

Edited by Ansem

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9 hours ago, grasshopper1917 said:

...From eveything I have heard CPL aims to be an affordable family experience with a modest salary cap with the aim of providing quality soccer in several markets and developing Canadian talent...

MLS has the three markets it wants in Canada and would need to be offered obscene amounts of money to accept a fourth team as things stand at the moment given the types of city that want in south of the border and what they can do for the overall broadcasting footprint. So far the teams that are being speculated about for CPL since the announcement was made are not in those three core markets and are arguably more comparable to what you would expect to have at D3 level in the United States given there is a 750k metro size area threshold for D2 in the sanctioning rules. That could still change if for example the much rumoured Toronto billionaire suddenly surfaces with plans for a 20k plus SSS and a huge NY Cosmos style player budget, but if as appears to be the case at the moment, something like Halifax, Quebec City, Hamilton, K/W, Winnipeg and Saskatoon are featuring prominently when/if the league launches there really isn't a conflict going on between the two. Hopefully CPL will get its business model right so it can actually flourish in a city like Saskatoon, just as MLS has provided the platform for TFC to flourish in the GTA.

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Couple more interesting things from Beirne on Soccer Today pod yesterday

-Players would be paid a living wage.  He said there were rumours/speculation that it would be like NLL and players would fly in on weekends for games.  This is wrong and they'll be in the community and training full time

-Asked about CFL involvement and how this concerns some, he said it's nonsense (not those words exactly)  It's a positive thing and that these are people who know about running successful sports franchises, everything from the business perspective to the sporting perspective.  Then made a point of saying it's not just CFL owners, that there are independent ones and then he watched how he worded it but "people who run organizations in other leagues as well"

 

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Re the MLS clubs, I am not as keen as some to have them move to CPL - even in the long term.

I am a CPL-first guy (at least as much as one can be at this point).  From a supporter perspective, I think the development of a strong domestic league is priority 1 - and it takes precedence over the interests of the MLS clubs, the Fury, FCEd, or anyone else who has competing interests.  Having said that, I don't see CPL competing with MLS in the next couple of decades (possibly never) because MLS has a huge headstart, has a massive potential fanbase and revenue stream, and has shown the kind of consistent growth that gives it a really strong upwards trajectory.  I don't see the 3 teams wanting to leave that voluntarily, and I don't see much upside in the CSA or anyone else trying to force the issue.

If MLS continues its growth into a globally competitive league (which I believe will be the case), we will be really well positioned to benefit from that by having 3 strong clubs in the league.  Economic clout will give us levers to keep lobbying for things like Canadians as domestics etc if those things continue to be issues in the CPL era, and the CPL will still build the Canadian player pool and offer a developmental path for a much larger number of talented prospects.

There will be tensions in this arrangement - no doubt.  Does MLS start to make CanCon concessions in an attempt to undermine CPL (which we have already seen previewed with the MLS-first-pro-contract provisions in their recent changes to the domestic player rules).  And CPL will have to battle with the perception that it is subbordinate to MLS, even if it is tier 1 in Canada.  Not even CFL has to do this because, despite being clearly behind the NFL in terms of talent/pay, it has exclusive domain on the Canadian market and thus has no local competition playing in the big league (and yet many gridiron fans still prefer to follow US teams in US leagues).  But despite this, I still think we can build a strong domestic league while benefitting from participation in MLS.  Maybe it is a bit of a glass half full naivete, but as long as we can make CPL work initially in non-MLS markets, I think we may be able to have the best of both worlds.  

 

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Rollins tweeted this morning that he hears the franchise fee will be $1.5 million and that will include ownership shares in the CPL market company (their version of MLS' SUM)

He's also really focused on Beirne's comments about communties with a population of 200,000 as potential markets and looking at the number between 100k and 200k that could get there in the near future.

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The thing that will help CPL penetrating the big 3 markets will be MLS having bad PR in those cities whenever he visits them. Don Garber (soon to be Gary Bettman v.2) pissed off Montreal medias more than generating excitement for MLS. He was nothing short than a dick, more so than last time when he visited Vancouver.

If CPL can have the total opposite in terms of attitude, they might want to consider getting in those 3 markets perhaps sooner, especially if Garber keeps it up

 

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4 minutes ago, Rheo said:

He's also really focused on Beirne's comments about communties with a population of 200,000 as potential markets and looking at the number between 100k and 200k that could get there in the near future.

...which would most likely be Barrie, Kelowna and Abbotsford judging by this list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_census_metropolitan_areas_and_agglomerations_in_Canada

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7 minutes ago, Rheo said:

Rollins tweeted this morning that he hears the franchise fee will be $1.5 million and that will include ownership shares in the CPL market company (their version of MLS' SUM)

He's also really focused on Beirne's comments about communties with a population of 200,000 as potential markets and looking at the number between 100k and 200k that could get there in the near future.

That's starting to sound a lot like CPL + CPL 2 scheme. Which is totally doable as long as CPL as a whole controls both Divisions

You start accepting bids for the biggest markets with the highest upsides in term of marketing than defer and save bids for smaller markets for later once a CPL 2 is ready to be active

Edited by Ansem

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3 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

...which would most likely be Barrie, Kelowna and Abbotsford judging by this list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_census_metropolitan_areas_and_agglomerations_in_Canada

There's a big thread going on off the tweet discussing it.  Sandor is wondering about Fort Mac as a possibility once the city recovers given they already have the stadium, then some of the usuals (KW, Windsor, London, Niagara, Regina, Saskatoon) places.  Definitely getting more and more interesting with the little nuggets of information they release.

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15 minutes ago, Rheo said:

He's also really focused on Beirne's comments about communties with a population of 200,000 as potential markets and looking at the number between 100k and 200k that could get there in the near future.

I'll post something regarding this in the "potential D2" thread

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49 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

He needs to say 200k and up to be able to include Saskatoon and Regina in the discussion and I don't think anyone is suggesting that the Saskatchewan team that has been getting some mainstream media attention would be in a "potential D2".

Don't forget Moncton

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Hard to see the league's vision. Seems they put an emphasis on communities (cities) over overall markets (Metro/agglomeration). That's closer to Europe in terms of vision, that's for sure. Can't say I disapprove of the approach.

Edited by Ansem

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2 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Hard to see the league's vision. Seems they put an emphasis on communities (cities) over overall markets (Metro/agglomeration). That's closer to Europe in terms of vision, that's for sure. Can't say I disapprove of the approach.

I'd love to see North Calgary vs South Calgary but I am also not sold on Calgary being able to support one team... Definition of fair weather fans

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37 minutes ago, Oranje said:

I'd love to see North Calgary vs South Calgary but I am also not sold on Calgary being able to support one team... Definition of fair weather fans

Couldn't agree more. As someone who's been trying to build the supporters group for Foothills, I know this all too well.

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The small markets all competing against each other in local derbys is a romantic thought, but they seriously need to think about penetrating the big markets before making sure it's palatable for moose jaw, otherwise this league is in trouble.

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