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FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

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3 hours ago, Blackdude said:

Actually beating Costa Rica is worth more.

True, but what I was thinking was that the sequence Costa Rica> Jamaica> Mexico should end with the USA. Meaning we play those teams in that sequence, beating Jamaica and Mexico, and get to the final vs. the USA, and win it. 

Unless you are arguing that if we meet CR in the final it will get us even more points with current rankings, which would be true.

 

Edited by Unnamed Trialist

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7 hours ago, Blackdude said:

Actually beating Costa Rica is worth more.

Only in FIFA rankings is it worth more.  The national satisfaction of beating the U.S. would be priceless.  

Plus, the neighbourly rivalry factor would really shoot up our ELO rankings.

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7 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Unless you are arguing that if we meet CR in the final it will get us even more points with current rankings, which would be true.

This is what he's saying. From here on out the best case in terms of FIFA ranking points is to beat Jamaica in the QF, Mexico in the SF, and Costa Rica in the final.

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An even more disgusting thing about these Gold Cups. The US is not counted as home team, it is considered neutral ground. 

If this were played in different countries every version, the US would probably, on average, miss a round every two editions and have less pts coming out of each group stage. Their ranking would drop and they'd be in harder semi groups to qualify for the WC. 

And rival teams, facing them in GC with them playing at home, fucking always, would also get better results and the spread would narrow.

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14 hours ago, WheatsheafSK said:

Only in FIFA rankings is it worth more.  The national satisfaction of beating the U.S. would be priceless.  

Plus, the neighbourly rivalry factor would really shoot up our ELO rankings.

I don't think ELO includes any bonuses for winning a "derby". However, any win over the US in the US would be an away win which is certainly worth more points than a home win.

(Math alert for all the mathphobes!)

http://www.eloratings.net/system.html

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58 minutes ago, hamiltonfan said:

How'd we do with a Jamaica win?

dr = 37,  We = 0.553,  K = 50

If we win by 1 goal: +22 (change in our rating)

If we win by 2 goals: +34

If we win by 3 goals: +39

If we draw: -3

So far as I can tell, a penalty shoot out does not affect the ratings.

Edited by dsqpr

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OK, so with the loss to Jamaica last night, things don't look good. According to the prognosis tool on the FIFA website, we won't pass any CONCACAF teams this month, and in fact El Salvador will move into a tie with us. We move from 331 to 352 points, and El Salvador will move from 319 to 352.

So this Gold Cup that has gotten a lot of us all giddy, actually hurts our ranking within the confederation, which really is what matters for the World Cup qualifying draw.

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1 hour ago, Kent said:

OK, so with the loss to Jamaica last night, things don't look good. According to the prognosis tool on the FIFA website, we won't pass any CONCACAF teams this month, and in fact El Salvador will move into a tie with us. We move from 331 to 352 points, and El Salvador will move from 319 to 352.

So this Gold Cup that has gotten a lot of us all giddy, actually hurts our ranking within the confederation, which really is what matters for the World Cup qualifying draw.

True. But I'm hopeful that our ranking will continue to improve as we drop 2013 and 2014 games out the back end!

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1 hour ago, Addona said:

True. But I'm hopeful that our ranking will continue to improve as we drop 2013 and 2014 games out the back end!

I'm not an expert on this, but it looks to me like Curacao is catchable, and El Salvador of course since we will be tied with them. I imagine all the others are out of reach. If I'm right about that, and we reach that potential, we would be ranked 9th in CONCACAF at the time of the WCQ draw. If it's the same format as last time, that puts us in the 9th to 21st pot... so no better off than teams like Guyana and Grenada.

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I am likely in the minority, but having extra (and winnable) games against Dominica and Belize served Canada well last time.  Having more "real games", especially in more tropical climates with lower quality playing fields, helped the team prepare for the group stage. It would be nice to have Canada ranked higher, but if they have to do some qualifying games again it is not the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, WheatsheafSK said:

I am likely in the minority, but having extra (and winnable) games against Dominica and Belize served Canada well last time.  Having more "real games", especially in more tropical climates with lower quality playing fields, helped the team prepare for the group stage. It would be nice to have Canada ranked higher, but if they have to do some qualifying games again it is not the end of the world.

Getting World Cup qualifiers against those countries are fine, they aren't the problem presented by our poor ranking. If we were ranked better though, then in the round where we always fail we could potentially swap out a Honduras from our group in favour of St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

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2 hours ago, WheatsheafSK said:

I am likely in the minority, but having extra (and winnable) games against Dominica and Belize served Canada well last time.  Having more "real games", especially in more tropical climates with lower quality playing fields, helped the team prepare for the group stage. It would be nice to have Canada ranked higher, but if they have to do some qualifying games again it is not the end of the world.

It effects our seeding so then we have 2 top teams in our group just to get to the Hex.

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10 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

Do we have any information on if WC qualifying will change at all from the 2018 cycle? I know VM was saying changes are going to be made, but I haven't heard a timeline.

6 slots now so maybe no hex.

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29 minutes ago, ReedOnTheGrand said:

For some reason I thought it was 2022

2026.

That is when the World Cup increases to a hundred and forty eight teams. Or maybe everybody qualifies automatically, I can't remember offhand. Anyway, whatever generates the most cash for FIFA.

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New FIFA ranking is out tomorrow.

We should be at 352 pts, four positions higher or so, to 96 it seems, but nowhere near trapping the next Concacaf nation, T&T, who are almost 25 spots ahead of us. 

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As we've gone up 5 spots where former nearests rival T&T has dropped 5, the spread between nearest Concacaf rivals above us is tighter. We were 23 spots behind the nearest rival, now we have Honduras, T&T and Curacao (biggest loser this last month overall) within 20. 

 

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14- Mexico +2

21- Costa Rica +5

26- USA +9

55- Haiti -6

57- Jamaica +19

61- Panama -9

75- Honduras -3

83- T&T -5

86- Curacao -18

95- Canada +5

100- Guatemala +2

 

We gained +21 points from the Gold Cup and are now 18 points back from Madagascar at 90th and 21 points clear of Guatemala at 100th place.

Edited by harrycoyster

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