Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
MontyCircus

Odds of Progressing to the Hex...

Recommended Posts

I couldn't find betting lines for that, so I decided to compute it myself.  I asked myself, what would give us a great chance of progressing to the hex?  I figure 4 points against Honduras and 2 wins against El Salvador should just about do it.

So what are the odds of that?

I used eloratings.net and line by line went through all of the competitive matches played in Canada, Honduras and El Salvador and came up with this:

Odds of getting at least 4 points against Honduras = 33.3%

Odds of getting both wins against El Salvador = 25%

Odds of doing both = 8.3%

Keep in mind, even though I used every competitive match, it's only a handful of matches.  Also, the odds would be a bit better if I included Mexico, but I wanted to keep it simple.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think we have to get win/win vs El Salvador (although that would help). Win/Tie vs Hon and ES plus Mexico running the table
gives us 8 points.

ES and Honduras would only be able to max out at 7 points by my calculations.

Win at home, tie on the road. Hope Mexico runs the table against the others and maybe sneak a point against them.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think we have to get win/win vs El Salvador (although that would help). Win/Tie vs Hon and ES plus Mexico running the table
gives us 8 points.

ES and Honduras would only be able to max out at 7 points by my calculations.

Win at home, tie on the road. Hope Mexico runs the table against the others and maybe sneak a point against them.

 

Odds of getting at least 4 points from Honduras (33.3%) and at least 4 points from El Salvador (75%) = 25%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your calculation doesn't take into account that the teams playing in this competition are significantly different from the teams that obtained the prior results that you analysed.  El Salvador in particular is much weaker now than it has been in the past, with most of its top players on strike and not playing in the first two matches.  The Honduras team is nowhere near as strong as the team that beat us 1-8 three years ago.  CMNT is arguably improved since then.  I think our chances are a lot better than you have proposed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your calculation doesn't take into account that the teams playing in this competition are significantly different from the teams that obtained the prior results that you analysed.  El Salvador in particular is much weaker now than it has been in the past, with most of its top players on strike and not playing in the first two matches.  The Honduras team is nowhere near as strong as the team that beat us 1-8 three years ago.  CMNT is arguably improved since then.  I think our chances are a lot better than you have proposed.

You are correct.  Those numbers only used historical results.  Like I said, I looked for an official betting line, which would incorporate everything you stated, but have not been able to find one.

WeGlobalFootball.com currently has our chances at 69%.

http://www.weglobalfootball.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/concacaf1.png

It looks like they're going off the last 18 months of matches only to get that number.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...