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masster

FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

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1 hour ago, Kent said:

I'm not trying to pick apart your post, but this got me thinking. Does anybody have the stats on set piece goals against in the Floro era vs OZ era to date? I know a lot of people were really nervous about how we defended deep on free kicks under Floro, but I don't think we gave up many goals like that, if any. With OZ if I remember correctly we've given up some corner kick goals already, but I'm not sure if we've given up free kick goals yet.

I personally didn't mind us defending deep, and that's what I preferred as a player. Hearing Paul Dolan's explanation in an interview I think it was, made a lot of sense.

I'm sure you are right, and when I was younger and until maybe the last twenty years teams defended long indirect free kicks further back. It makes sense as you face the ball and the attackers, instead of having to run alongside them with them often facing in, apparently to their advantage.

Defending deep means the attackers are in the keepers face, and he is at a disadvantage both seeing and reading the play, and that is why the international standard now is to defend further out. It is not to catch players offside, as many defending teams move back before the attackers come in anyways, to have a positional advantage. It is to get attackers further from goal and give your keeper a better chance.

In any case, however a coach wants to do it, it needs time, you need practice sessions. And for a lot of other similar problems on a given day. None of which you can work on properly if you can't train.

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Although it doesn't affect us, the FIFA rankings have become even more important...they will now be used to seed teams into various pots for the World Cup group draw. In the past, pots were based on your confederation.

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/11035467/fifa-confirms-2018-world-cup-seeds-will-be-based-on-october-rankings

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On 16/9/2017 at 5:53 AM, masster said:

Although it doesn't affect us, the FIFA rankings have become even more important...they will now be used to seed teams into various pots for the World Cup group draw. In the past, pots were based on your confederation.

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/11035467/fifa-confirms-2018-world-cup-seeds-will-be-based-on-october-rankings

That article actually says that after the September rankings, they will be updated twice before the December draw. So I am thinking the headline is incorrect, it will be based on the November ranking--or else they've just muddled it and we need to check another source. 

As we stand now, Belgium, Poland and Switzerland would make the first pot, while France, England and Spain would be in the second. Really smart set up, unless, as I say, I have not grasped something. 

For us the important thing is to get higher to get a better group in Gold Cup and have a better chance to go further, as well as more favourable semifinal group in WCQ. We would all take pretty well any WC draw we were in, I am sure. 

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5 hours ago, hamiltonfan said:

What the expected effect of a positive results versus El Salvador (ranked #99)? We are currently ranked #96. 

Well the game isn't available on FIFA's website with it's ranking tool yet, but I would estimate it would have approximately 0 effect. More specifically, we gained 17 points after our win against Jamaica last month, and they are ranked more than 30 spots ahead of El Salvador. We are 27 points behind the next team (Curacao). Probably the most important games for Canada in terms of ranking in October are Trinidad's World Cup qualifiers against USA and Mexico. If they draw either of those games there is a good chance they pass us. If they win a game they will have a healthy lead over us.

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October friendlies were loaded into the ranking system today.

We currently have 368 points. After our match vs. El Salvador, we will either have 390 (win), 371 (draw), or 361 (loss).

Before the match was included in the projection tool, it was saying 385 for us, so this is one of those weird situations where say we draw El Salvador, we'll have 14 fewer points (371) than if we hadn't played a match at all (385). Since we were going to have 385 points anyway with no match, a win basically nets us 5 more points. Please tell me the day is coming soon where we hit 400! :)

El Salvador drops a point even if they win the friendly with us (360), so we will stay ahead of them regardless of what happens on October 8th. We could potentially jump ahead of Curacao (maybe into 8th in the region, depending on what T&T do in their 2 WCQ matches). Should we win, and Curacao either lose or draw vs. Qatar, we would jump ahead of them.

Edited by jtpc

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1 hour ago, jtpc said:

October friendlies were loaded into the ranking system today.

We currently have 368 points. After our match vs. El Salvador, we will either have 390 (win), 371 (draw), or 361 (loss).

Before the match was included in the projection tool, it was saying 385 for us, so this is one of those weird situations where say we draw El Salvador, we'll have 14 fewer points (371) than if we hadn't played a match at all (385). Since we were going to have 385 points anyway with no match, a win basically nets us 5 more points. Please tell me the day is coming soon where we hit 400! :)

El Salvador drops a point even if they win the friendly with us (360), so we will stay ahead of them regardless of what happens on October 8th. We could potentially jump ahead of Curacao (maybe into 8th in the region, depending on what T&T do in their 2 WCQ matches). Should we win, and Curacao either lose or draw vs. Qatar, we would jump ahead of them.

If we play in November and get good result we could get into the 400's. They said that TFC would never win the league...

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17 minutes ago, Jith12 said:

If we play in November and get good result we could get into the 400's. They said that TFC would never win the league...

I highly doubt it.

I didn't know how we calculate the last year, but we would be at 154 points, not counting the last year because I would need to find all results, and I can only find the Jamaica result that is worth 364.65  but I can't find any other result. But since the match that is coming off the books is a loss, I was able to find the average that we had.  We would need to beat a CONMEBOL or UEFA team in the top 55 and if it's for any other confederation, it's in the top 31. And that is if we beat El Salvador. I didn't count for multiple matches, but two teams in the 80 range from CONMEBOL or UEFA or in the top 60 in other confederations. 

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@Edgar has released a projection of CONCACAF rankings for 2022 World Cup qualifying.  Although the qualifying format reportedly will be different, it's interesting to see that the Americans are projected to be 4th.  Under the old system that would leave them outside the top seeds.  We're projected 9th.

 

http://www.football-rankings.info/2017/10/2022-fifa-world-cup-qualifying-concacaf.html

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22 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

@Edgar has released a projection of CONCACAF rankings for 2022 World Cup qualifying.  Although the qualifying format reportedly will be different, it's interesting to see that the Americans are projected to be 4th.  Under the old system that would leave them outside the top seeds.  We're projected 9th.

http://www.football-rankings.info/2017/10/2022-fifa-world-cup-qualifying-concacaf.html

So according to the link we're expected to play in the second round! As usual.

Wasn't there gonna be some changes made to Concacaf WCQ? Unless it remains the same this is an accurate representation of what it will be like 

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2 minutes ago, Thomas said:

So according to the link we're expected to play in the second round! As usual.

Wasn't there gonna be some changes made to Concacaf WCQ? Unless it remains the same this is an accurate representation of what it will be like 

He's assuming it will be the format again for the sake of the ranking projection but that won't be the format.  General Secretary Moggio repeated again last month at Soccerex that it will change.  

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I almost don't want it to change now that there is a chance for USA to not be in the top pot.

Seriously though, I am very curious to see what they come up with. I hope they announce it soon rather than waiting for just before the draw.

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12 hours ago, Kent said:

I almost don't want it to change now that there is a chance for USA to not be in the top pot.

Seriously though, I am very curious to see what they come up with. I hope they announce it soon rather than waiting for just before the draw.

And with our luck we'd get a group like USA/MEX/JAM/CAN.  No thanks.  Time for a change. 

Bring on the decagonal!

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12 hours ago, Mike Thompson said:

8 teams in the final would work 

That's what it always should've been.  Having a final 6 team group where only a third of the teams get eliminated is ridiculous.  Last time around, CONCACAF left the FIFA windows of October 2015 and October 2016 unused so there were enough dates for the extra games.  For 2022 there are even more windows available with the World Cup pushed back 5 months later.

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4 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

That's what it always should've been.  Having a final 6 team group where only a third of the teams get eliminated is ridiculous.  Last time around, CONCACAF left the FIFA windows of October 2015 and October 2016 unused so there were enough dates for the extra games.  For 2022 there are even more windows available with the World Cup pushed back 5 months later.

How is that format ridiculous? Are you insisting the hex does not have enough drama or are you saying the best teams to do not advance? Because it is a hard no to both of those questions

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35 minutes ago, canta15 said:

How is that format ridiculous? Are you insisting the hex does not have enough drama or are you saying the best teams to do not advance? Because it is a hard no to both of those questions

I repeat: "only a third of teams getting eliminated is ridiculous".  USA had to finish 5th out of 6 to get knocked out.  Panama just qualified winning only 3 games out of 10.  Mexico qualified in 2014 winning only 2 games out of 10.  With a group of 8 you at least need to finish top half and have something remotely resembling a winning record..  

Edited by CanadianSoccerFan

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18 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I repeat: "only a third of teams getting eliminated is ridiculous".  USA had to finish 5th out of 6 to get knocked out.  Panama just qualified winning only 3 games out of 10.  Mexico qualified in 2014 winning only 2 games out of 10.  With a group of 8 you at least need to finish top half and have something remotely resembling a winning record..  

You do realize the teams have these recorda because of the difficulty of the group right? So you want to add to teams to the group just to inflate the records of the qualifying teams, similar to the afc where they added minnows Thailand to the 2nd last qualifying stage where they got absolutely battered

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1 hour ago, canta15 said:

You do realize the teams have these recorda because of the difficulty of the group right? So you want to add to teams to the group just to inflate the records of the qualifying teams, similar to the afc where they added minnows Thailand to the 2nd last qualifying stage where they got absolutely battered

That ignores the fact that getting into the hex has a lot to do with the luck of the semi-final group draw.  Trinidad's not even the best team in the Caribbean let alone a top 6 team in CONCACAF but they had the soft draw.  Jamaica made two straight Gold Cup finals but had a tough draw.  We beat Honduras head to head but since unmotivated Mexico put out a bunch of kids on the last matchday we've been out for a year while Honduras is going to Australia.  I was one of many V's saying that making the hex would be more difficult than advancing out of it and I haven't changed my mind.  

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21 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

That ignores the fact that getting into the hex has a lot to do with the luck of the semi-final group draw.  Trinidad's not even the best team in the Caribbean let alone a top 6 team in CONCACAF but they had the soft draw.  Jamaica made two straight Gold Cup finals but had a tough draw.  We beat Honduras head to head but since unmotivated Mexico put out a bunch of kids on the last matchday we've been out for a year while Honduras is going to Australia.  I was one of many V's saying that making the hex would be more difficult than advancing out of it and I haven't changed my mind.  

The fact that you think we deserved to make it to the hex is a complete joke. What, you think if we were placed in Tnt’s position we would have done any better? We can’t even beat El Salvador B (a shite version of El Salvador for all those who cry “it wasn’t a B team”) and Belize away, how could we beat Guatamala when they beat the states. And I hate when people say “we beat them h2h” Head to head doesn’t mean squat in WCQs unless you are playing a 2 legged head to head playoff. Goal differential is the tiebreaker not head to head. We have to out best every team in the group not just one

 

And the reason Jamaica performs soo well in Gold Cup compared to WCQs is the fact that, like us, they can’t win in Central America. Tell me, is the Gold Cup played in Central America?

Edited by canta15

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2 hours ago, canta15 said:

The fact that you think we deserved to make it to the hex is a complete joke. What, you think if we were placed in Tnt’s position we would have done any better? We can’t even beat El Salvador B (a shite version of El Salvador for all those who cry “it wasn’t a B team”) and Belize away, how could we beat Guatamala when they beat the states. And I hate when people say “we beat them h2h” Head to head doesn’t mean squat in WCQs unless you are playing a 2 legged head to head playoff. Goal differential is the tiebreaker not head to head. We have to out best every team in the group not just one

 

And the reason Jamaica performs soo well in Gold Cup compared to WCQs is the fact that, like us, they can’t win in Central America. Tell me, is the Gold Cup played in Central America?

The US also failed to win in Central America just like Jamaica through both rounds.  They also finished a point behind Honduras in a group (hex) won by Mexico largely due to losing to a TnT B team.  Fairly similar to us finishing a point behind Honduras in a group won by Mexico largely due to a draw with a Salvadoran B team.  If the US had our group in the semis then maybe they wouldn't be in the hex either, but it's sure nice being a top seed.  

We missed by a single point and maybe we do or don't deserve to make the hex but a single point is not a chasm.  My point is that a larger final group puts that discussion to bed with the draw being of far less relevance.  

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3 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

The US also failed to win in Central America just like Jamaica through both rounds.  They also finished a point behind Honduras in a group (hex) won by Mexico largely due to losing to a TnT B team.  Fairly similar to us finishing a point behind Honduras in a group won by Mexico largely due to a draw with a Salvadoran B team.  If the US had our group in the semis then maybe they wouldn't be in the hex either, but it's sure nice being a top seed.  

We missed by a single point and maybe we do or don't deserve to make the hex but a single point is not a chasm.  My point is that a larger final group puts that discussion to bed with the draw being of far less relevance.  

The funny thing is the draw had no relevance in this cycle. No other team deserved to be in the Hex from the 4th round. But sure lets just make a group of 12 instead to scrap the draw altogether because it was clearly our luck that made us avoid the hex and not our lack of chemistry, skill, and coaching

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On 15/10/2017 at 3:01 PM, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I repeat: "only a third of teams getting eliminated is ridiculous".  USA had to finish 5th out of 6 to get knocked out.  Panama just qualified winning only 3 games out of 10.  Mexico qualified in 2014 winning only 2 games out of 10.  With a group of 8 you at least need to finish top half and have something remotely resembling a winning record..  

You are conveniently ignoring the matches those teams won just to get into the final 6.

The truth is that the current format is excellent at ensuring the best teams go to the World Cup but very poor at providing competitive fixtures for CONCACAF teams outside the top 6. The main reason most on this forum want change is for the very self serving reason that we are not in the top 6 (and nothing wrong with that!).

I also think the format needs to change. The UEFA format does not send the best 13 teams to the World Cup. I think having meaningful fixtures for far more CONCACAF nations (not just us!) much deeper into the WCQ calendar is imperative. I think there are at least 12 CONCACAF nations that deserve to be playing until the bitter (for most!) end.

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